A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
